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Pan Shige: Chinese house market already glided catastrophic brim
From;    Author:Stand originally
Adjust with building city accompany, local land income falls point-blank. General theatrical work decreases land income China of     SOHO (Pan Shige weighed 0410.HK) president recently, chinese house market already glided catastrophic brim. Land market be the first to be affected. Land of ministry of land natural resources is macroscopical of compose of group of adjusting control task " the economy that land market moved first half of the year 2008 analyses a report " point out, countrywide land supplied gross to decrease compared to the same period first half of the year this year 25.27% . But supplying gross reductive at the same time, supply land can not clinch a deal as scheduled. "This year since first half of the year, each district happens often ' retreat the ground ' incident, ' action pat hang ' plot sheds mark ceaselessly. Because some plot also dare be not rolled out again without the market. " Pan Shige says to our newspaper reporter. Be investigated according to the expert and calculate, the land accrual of many cities covers an area of above of half of square finance budgetary receipts. Of land market serious low fan, had affected the finance income of local government. It is with the city of a gleam of such as Beijing, Guangzhou exemple. According to Beijing " catenary home is landed " analysis of data of statistic of center of market research and development, 2008 1-8 month, beijing land trades total amount is thirty-three billion nine hundred and seventy-six million and thirty-three thousand eight hundred and ten yuan, land trades in all 53, trade amount and land trade a several annulus than May 2007 - thirty-seven billion four hundred and fifty-six million one hundred and forty thousand nine hundred and sixty yuan of December, 66, drop respectively 9.3% , 19.7% . Be in Guangzhou, income of gold of land sell one's own things is 6 billion yuan about first half of the year this year, and this income was as high as annual however last year 20.7 billion yuan. Second line city also nots allow hopeful. Xiamen city already was moved originally this year low budget of income of land sell one's own things, arrange seventeen billion seven hundred and eleven million yuan only, for 2007 gold of land sell one's own things the 65.8 % of budgetary receipts. But from first half of the year data looks, what circumstance comparing imagines is more bad. Business of whole first half of the year town lives to clinch a deal with ground sell one's own things rate only 54.83% , flow partly nearly pat, whole town in all land of sell one's own things (business lives) 11, assembly hands in amount only three billion nine hundred and twenty-three million one hundred and fifty thousand yuan. Be in southeast together coastal city of some provincial capital, first half of the year actually a land also fails to succeed sell one's own things. Wuhan of mid heat city also falls breathtaking. According to relevant data, since this year, wuhan downtown the city zone clinchs a deal area, amount and every mus of unit price all appears to drop considerably. Clinch a deal in all first half of the year 196911.6 square metre (about 295 mus of) , than 2007 the corresponding period decreases 85.78% , clinch a deal amount 1.425 billion, drop compared to the same period 88% , average every mus of unit price four million eight hundred and twenty-four thousand five hundred yuan / smooth rice, drop compared to the same period than last year 18% . Come from the data of ministry of land natural resources, income of sell one's own things of land of annual whole nation achieved nearly 1 trillion yuan last year, grow about 6 to become the left and right sides compared to the same period. Although return the authoritative data that does not have income of sell one's own things of land of entire first half of the year this year territory at present, but do not need of doubt is, last year " land finance is mythological " already far go. Land income theatrical work is decreased already was countrywide common phenomenon. The pressure   after land market is exasperate is current, land " shrink " do not have inactive evidence. "Although the company returns market of land of meeting attention each district, but can special discretion. " on September 10, sunshine new job (Gu Yue of 000608.SZ) plan chief inspector tells our newspaper the reporter, appear on the market to for the company, although,at present the land of 200 much square metre is laid in not much, but can not be eager to taking the ground. "This kind of deepness adjusts estate will last 3 years two. " Beijing country Zhao Jia of manager of limited company public relations expresses China buy course of study, the company is short-term in do not plan to take the ground again. Income of land sell one's own things brought into local budgetary finance the first year of income 2008. "Development business does not take the ground, most sensitive should count local government. " Mei Sheng of Nie of chairman of chamber of commerce of estate of countrywide business association points out, land income decreases, decrease with respect to what mean local finance income, applicable room, cheap hires infrastructure construction and economy the room construction that ensures sexual housing is advanced without method. "Local government will be faced with the double pressure of economy and society. " Ren Zhijiang of president of group of   Hua Yuan also thinks, if the estate investment, situation that area of new go into operation drops continuously is not changed, the supply of market of estate of bright the year after next is debatable, land accrual also will decrease considerably, the local finance that gives priority to with land finance is hard plan, also do not have money to solve the housing problem of low income family. According to active policy, action of each district land is patted hang income 10% or 15% will use at ensuring sexual housing construction. Beijing connects wisdom library high to invest Zhang Hong of general manager of advisory limited company to still point out, besides afore-mentioned pressure, local government still will is faced with how the real problem of disinvestment. "The depression of land market, mean a government in land the investment pay back period on market of one class development is spun till the cows come home, and the land of each district arranges great majority is to take up bank financing. If investment of local government land calls in,difficulty is increased, the risk also will be in the finance that brings from this to come out now along with rear body. "     " if land market is farther exasperate, will immediate impact goes to a bank, affect financial orgnaization. " Pan Shige also thinks so. Save the be puzzled of city? The experts that accept a reporter to interview think, will look at present, expectation administration department publishs the so-called policy that save city, temporary not actual, but local government has larger stretch space however. The choice of Xi'an city, one kind be pair of building city pressure is dissolved. Xi'an municipal government comes on stage " a certain number of opinions that develop about restoring real estate " , right the person that buy a room executes finance allowance, by general understanding is inside course of study save city. The practice of Xi'an city, whether to meet by other city imitated? Nie Mei Sheng is forecasted, those land income occupy finance income the local government of 40 % above can publish the policy that save city certainly, "We are waiting to look " . Pan Shige thinks, if local government or else comes out to save city, estate can give big question. But the best means that save city, be those who loosen 2 flatlet mortgage policy. "Catenary home is landed " controller of center of market research and development also thinks, estate market is stagnant, affect land to trade to affect accrual of governmental land sell one's own things then directly not only, and, say from macroscopical economy level, house property market belongs to upriver enterprise, the issue closes housing materials market, decorate the industry such as the market promote decline, involving economy to run medium many chain as a result of house property industry, appear in its accordingly considerably when coast, local government comes on stage according to the market situation of different level a few remedy measure, it is reasonable. Look in Chen Guojiang of director of institute of Beijing University estate, local government publishs these " save city " measure, basically be to stem from the purpose that safeguards estate market to anticipate, want to disclose business of consumer, development an information: Zhang Hong of   of? of ā of discuss of ∥ of humorous of  of health die young of  of   M expresses, slant the weak policy that save city is short-term in still make hard building city stops to glide, whole of prospective building city goes situation still more pessimistic. But also somebody objects local government moving to save city right now, because the adjustment of building city has not reach the designated position.

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